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Prediction for CME (2025-08-07T12:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-07T12:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40430/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the West in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-08-07T12:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This event is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 due to the location of the event. The source of this CME is an M3.9 flare from Active Region 14168 (N03W33) which peaked at 2025-08-07T11:31Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with field line opening visible in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284, with additional dimming/EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. The arrival of this CME was not observed at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-10T17:01Z (-8.01h, +8.89h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/08/07 11:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 17:10Z; 21Rsun; W Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 19:30Z; 21Rsun; E Direction
POS Difference: 2:20
POS Midpoint: 18:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: +1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~11.34
Travel Time: ~11.34 * 6:50 = 77:31

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-08-10T17:01Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/08/07 18:31Z
Lead Time: 70.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-08-07T19:01Z
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